RISK.....What a game !

Last night, almost all my family got together for dinner at my cousin's house. The evening started out with the usual chit chat with some great 'chaat' (Indian junk food). We had all gathered on a balcony and for a long time heard all the idhar udhar ki baatein from our elders. When we (the young guys n gals) couldn't take the crap any more we headed down stairs and decided to play the game - RISK !

I remember the wonderful time we used to have as kids playing this game. This goes back about a decade or so. It was a perfect setting for the game, which needs a lot of people who are full of energy prepared to negotiate, manipulate and try everything under the sun, in this case, under the lights, to make one team fight against another.

This board game involves tiny soldiers who are placed on territories and have to fight soldiers from the neighbouring territories with a roll of the dice. While there is a lot of luck needed to win the game, it also requires a lot of strategy. The best part of the game is the suggestions, comments, etc.that fellow players give one another. I would strongly recommend this game to a budding politician to hone his/her political skills.

At the end of yesterday's game, as usual, I turned out victorious and controlled most of the 'world' with the most number of soldiers also. I am now waiting for the next get-together for another round of the wonderful game - RISK.

Gossip !

I am an admirer of my brother Kamal's blogs http://www.kamaldshah.com/. I am quite addicted to it to the point of being disappointed when there isn't anything new written on a particular day.

His present blog regarding Gossip reminded me about one more attribute that some women have which is to tell a person a "secret" and tell that person "not to share it with anyone". Now, that would normally seem OK. However, the funny part is that the same women would tell the same "secret" to various other people and tell all of them to keep it to themselves. This is most commonly done while informing about someone else's secret.

Where are the laughs ?

Comedy.....oh comedy, where have you gone ?

I miss the days when our family used to go for the saturday evening show of a Govinda starer. That was the period when everyone left their brains at home and filled the theatres to get thoroughly entertained watching the comic brilliance of Govinda. The combination of Govinda and David Dhavan meant a roller coaster ride from the first frame to the last. All the movies from this jodi were super hits.

I miss those days....I miss those movies. Be it Coolie No.1, Saajan Chale Sasural, Aakhen, Hero No.1......the list can just go on and on. There were other hilarious movies which I would do tremendous injustice to if I were not to mention them on this topic. Masterpieces like Andaz Apna Apna and Hera Pheri will forever be remembered. Each and every character has left an indelible mark on the minds and hearts of the viewers.

There are movies of different genres being exhibited these days which is wonderful but among all this the one type of movies that aren't quite up to the mark are comedies.

Go out there and BUY !!

I have never claimed to be a master of the stock market. I do my little bit and keep in touch with whats happening around though.

Over the last year or so, markets all over the globe have been battered down. Blue chips have also been beaten down to the extent of 70-80% from their peaks. While there are some pointers to justify a fall, there is absolutely nothing to justify this kind of a fall. Agreed there is a liquidity crunch, manufacturing has slowed, demand has slowed, jobs are being lost, etc. However, there is a silver lining in all this.

The crux of the problem, the US banking system, has learnt a bitter lesson they would never forget. They are being over cautious presently, which is understandable. One must understand that they are banks and they MUST lend to make money. The federal banks across the world have taken bold steps and injected big money into the system. This will ease concerns of banks which will sooner or later result in money flowing into the hands of the genuine borrowers, which to a large extent are corporates. Most companies, have put on hold or shelved expansion plans due to the volatile environment. With availability of credit back many would take advantage and resume their plans, if not to the extent earlier planned. This directly creates jobs, which ignites spending and gets the growth of economies going.

Coming back to stocks, there is a difference between a broken down stock of a broken down company and a broken down stock of a good company. Stocks are just a value that an investor is willing to pay for a portion of a company. As indicated on my earlier blog, stock prices quote many a time at irrational levels, not reflecting their fundamentals. We, in India got a glimpse of extreme greed in January when the sensex touched the 21000 level. Over the last 11 months, this extreme greed turned into extreme panic. A classic Warren Buffett scenario. Not surprisingly, the Oracle of Omaha went and picked up a chunk of Goldman Sachs. Indian stocks are overly dependant on foreign institutional investors. Unfortunately, owing to the collapse of their respective institutions in their home markets, these institutions were forced to sell left right and centre to get cash. At the receiving end were stocks of great companies.

We all know, the Indian story is still on. While the world worries about recession, India is expected to grow between 6.5% (most pessimistic opinion) and 8.00% (most optimistic opinion). This is the sort of growth that investors go after. When the dust settles and people start acting rationally India will be one of the biggest benefactors. India, unlike any other major economy, has several things going for it. Being a major importer of commodities, declining prices results in huge savings. Strong domestic demand and lesser dependence on exports augers well in the recessionary atmosphere abroad.

Stocks are trading at historically low levels. This means lowest price to earnings ratios (PE) are the lowest in years. This is the time for those who do not have much of an exposure to enter for a long run. At these levels the risk-reward scale tilts fully in favour.

The storm has settled. It is time to rebuild !